WASHINGTON, D.C.: After months of warnings from former federal officials and weather experts, the deadly flash floods that struck the Texas Hill Country on July 4 have renewed scrutiny over staffing cuts at the National Weather Service (NWS) under President Donald Trump.

The torrential rains and sudden floods, which claimed the lives of at least 11 people—including more than two dozen girls and counselors attending a summer camp near the Guadalupe River—have led to fierce criticism of federal preparedness, particularly concerning weather forecasting capabilities.

Local officials expressed frustration over what they described as inadequate forecasts, though few directly blamed Trump's actions. However, Democrats wasted no time linking the catastrophe to deep staffing reductions at the NWS. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has called for an inquiry into whether these shortages contributed to what he termed a "catastrophic loss of life."

The NWS office responsible for the area had five staff members on duty during the overnight hours of July 3, which is standard for severe weather situations. According to former officials, these staffers issued urgent flash flood warnings before the river levels surged.

Brian LaMarre, a recently retired meteorologist-in-charge at the NWS Tampa office, praised the quick issuance of a "catastrophic flash flood warning," emphasizing that the alert demonstrated the meteorologists' alertness and dedication. "There is always a challenge in pinpointing extreme rainfall," LaMarre said, "but issuing that warning first shows the urgency they felt."

Still, questions remain about the level of communication between the NWS and local emergency managers during the critical hours. Under Trump's administration, staffing at nearly half of the 122 NWS field offices has been cut by at least 20 percent, and some offices are no longer staffed around the clock. Many seasoned forecasters were encouraged to retire early, weakening institutional expertise across the agency.

The cuts have not stopped at the NWS. The Trump administration has proposed slashing the budget of the agency's parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), by 27 percent, with plans to eliminate key federal research centers that study weather, climate, and ocean patterns. The NWS office for Austin/San Antonio, which covers the flood-hit area, currently shows six of its 27 positions as vacant. One of the unfilled roles is a crucial manager responsible for coordinating emergency alerts—a position vacated in April shortly after employees were sent emails urging early retirement.

While Trump has downplayed the impact of the job cuts, claiming the floods occurred without warning and that "no one saw it," former officials disagree. Louis Uccellini, who led the NWS under three presidents, warned that the reduction in staff is pushing the system to a breaking point. "People are exhausted," he said. "They're working nights, covering extra shifts. It increases the risk that something vital in the forecast might be missed."

The staffing crisis follows executive orders issued by Trump earlier this year, allowing the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut federal staff and contracts without Congressional approval. Initially headed by billionaire Elon Musk, the department's influence persists even after his departure and public rift with Trump. The result has been chaos across many federal agencies, with tens of thousands of jobs impacted.

These changes are in line with a longstanding Republican effort to privatize much of NOAA's functions. Trump's administration has installed officials with ties to private weather firms—entities that would benefit from weakening the publicly funded forecasting system. The Project 2025 policy blueprint, which Trump distanced himself from during the 2024 campaign but has implemented since returning to office, calls for the dismantling of NOAA and a greater push toward commercialization.

The staffing shortages have already affected operations. Several field offices have reduced weather balloon launches and cut the frequency of regional forecasts. In April, the NWS abruptly ended non-English translations of forecasts and emergency warnings, though this decision was reversed after public outcry.

More alarmingly, Trump's proposed budget includes plans to close critical climate monitoring facilities, such as the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. This site has been central to tracking carbon dioxide levels for decades. In another blow, NOAA recently announced that the Department of Defense will stop transmitting data from three vital weather satellites—systems experts say are crucial for forecasting hurricanes.

LaMarre warned that losing satellite data "removes another piece of the public safety puzzle." With fewer tools available, the quality and precision of weather warnings will suffer, he said.

At a Senate hearing last month, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied any staffing cuts had occurred, calling reports of layoffs "fake news." He insisted, "We are fully staffed," and claimed public safety had not been compromised.

Yet, in response to the backlash, NOAA recently said it would seek to fill more than 100 "mission-critical" vacancies and reassign staff to plug holes at regional offices. However, those jobs have not yet been posted, and forecasters on the ground remain overstretched and under-supported.

As the Texas tragedy demonstrates, the price of weakened forecasting isn't theoretical. It's measured in lives lost and eroded public trust.