News24
27 Mar 2020, 03:10 GMT+10
Covid -19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed on Thursday.
The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1 000, with 68 000 confirmed infections.
Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine analysed the latest Covid-19 data at a local, national and international level.
These include hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.
Specifically, they looked at the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as shuttering schools and businesses.
They then looked at each American state's ICU bed and ventilator capacity.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for Covid-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak - also set for some point in April - as many as 2300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.
This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
"Our estimated trajectory of Covid-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies," said Christopher Murray, IHME director.
"The trajectory of the pandemic will change - and dramatically for the worse - if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions."
The analysis estimated that approximately 81 000 people in the US will die from the virus over the coming four months.
Estimates ranged between 38 000 and more than 160 000.
It forecast that a total of 41 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.
The economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic caused an unprecedented 3.3 million people to file for unemployment benefits last week alone.
"We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks," said Murray.
Get a daily dose of Chicago Chronicle news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Chicago Chronicle.
More InformationNEW YORK, New York -U.S. stock markets closed with broad gains on Thursday, led by strong performances in U.S. tech stocks, while European...
LONDON/STOCKHOLM: The Persson family is ramping up its investment in the H&M fashion empire, fueling renewed speculation about a potential...
PARIS, France: L'Oréal is making a fresh play in the booming premium haircare segment with a new acquisition. The French beauty conglomerate...
MENLO PARK, California: Robinhood is giving European investors a new way to tap into America's most prominent tech names — without...
NEW YORK, New York - U.S. stocks diverged on Wednesday for the second day in a row. The Standard and Poor's 500 hit a new all-time...
NEW YORK CITY, New York: The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground, weighed down by growing concerns over Washington's fiscal outlook...
Aluminum, copper and nickel shipments have surged this year, according to trade data Beijing has increased purchases of Russian metals...
By Reena Bhardwaj New York [US], June 29 (ANI): A prominent Hindu spiritual leader has been recognised by New York City officials...
BEIJING, June 28 (Xinhua) -- Here are the latest Chinese sports headlines from the past week: 1. China's Wang Xinyu finishes runner-up...
Elon Musk has threatened to launch a new party to undermine US President Donald Trump, following a falling out over a spending bill....
This will be a year of transition for Atlantas defensive line, and an important one. Will McFadden FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. For the...
Michael Hull In the weeks leading up to training camp, we will take a look back at a few of the most pivotal seasons in Bengals history....